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Few professional investment managers make use of momentum investing, believing that individual stock picking based on an analysis of discounted cash flows and other fundamental factors tends to produce more predictable results, and is a better means of beating index performance over the long term. "As an investment strategy, it’s a thumb in the eye of the 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH), one of the central tenets of modern finance," to quote a UCLA Anderson Review article, "Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?" published on Oct. 31, 2018.
Analysts usually upgrade their earnings estimates for high-momentum stocks more than low-momentum stocks, creating an overly bullish sentiment among investors that could often make the high-momentum stocks very crowded. That behavior has moderated over recent months, noted McCarthy, and the momentum strategy has become less crowded since the fourth quarter last year, though still above historical levels.
If you trade stock regularly, you might find yourself accidentally violating the dreaded wash-sale rule. This means you've sold shares of stock and then bought the same or similar shares shortly thereafter. This can cost you huge tax penalties. With a little planning, you can avoid this fate and still enjoy trading stocks aggressively with a little planning.
Finally, the other factor: risk tolerance. The stock market goes up and down, and if you’re prone to panicking when it does the latter, you’re better off investing slightly more conservatively, with a lighter allocation to stocks. Not sure? We have a risk tolerance quiz — and more information about how to make this decision — in our article about what to invest in.
News sites such as Yahoo Finance and Google Finance serve as a great resource for beginners. For in depth coverage, look no further than the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. By monitoring the markets each day and reading headline stories investors can expose themselves to trends, 3rd party analysis, not to mention economic concepts and general business. Pulling quotes and observing fundamental data can also serve as another good source of exposure.
Investors should consider the investment objectives and unique risk profile of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) carefully before investing. ETFs are subject to risks similar to those of other diversified portfolios. Leveraged and Inverse ETFs may not be suitable for all investors and may increase exposure to volatility through the use of leverage, short sales of securities, derivatives and other complex investment strategies.
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Momentum investing usually involves a strict set of rules based on technical indicators that dictate market entry and exit points for particular securities. Momentum investors sometimes use two longer-term moving averages, one a bit shorter than the other, for trading signals. Some use 50-day and 200-day moving averages, for example. The 50-day crossing above the 200-day creates a buy signal. A 50-day crossing back below the 200-day creates a sell signal. A few momentum investors prefer to use even longer-term moving averages for signaling purposes.