Few professional investment managers make use of momentum investing, believing that individual stock picking based on an analysis of discounted cash flows and other fundamental factors tends to produce more predictable results, and is a better means of beating index performance over the long term. "As an investment strategy, it’s a thumb in the eye of the 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH), one of the central tenets of modern finance," to quote a UCLA Anderson Review article, "Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?" published on Oct. 31, 2018.
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Stock investing is filled with intricate strategies and approaches, yet some of the most successful investors have done little more than stick with the basics. That generally means using funds for the bulk of your portfolio — Warren Buffett has famously said a low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best investment most Americans can make — and choosing individual stocks only if you believe in the company’s potential for long-term growth.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) leapt $1.99 to $29.57 on 107 million shares Tuesday. On Monday the chipmaker announced a deal to license its custom graphics intellectual property (IP) to Samsung for use in mobile devices. The stock has broken out of a 2-month sideways channel, and any move across the $29.75 range could get this into the mid-$30's.
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Still, other momentum strategies involve cross-asset analysis. For example, some equity traders closely watch the Treasury yield curve and use it as a momentum signal for equity entries and exits. A 10-year Treasury yield above the two-year yield generally is a buy signal, whereas a two-year yield trading above the 10-year is a sell signal. Notably, the two-year versus 10-year Treasury yields tend to be a strong predictor of recessions, and also has implications for stock markets.