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During its latest rebalance, the Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) halved its exposure to the tech sector from 36.6% to 17.2%, and more than doubled the weight in health care to 27.9%. Utilities and real estate went from nearly zero to 11.7% and 7.1% of the portfolios, respectively. That helps explain the fund’s moderate loss of 1.7% in May, even though the tech stocks within the S&P 500 slumped a much steeper 5.7%.
The nine-year-old bull market in U.S. stocks has been dominated by growth and momentum plays, such as the popular FAANG group of stocks. These momentum stocks have significantly outperformed value stocks, and Oppenheimer analyst Ari Wald says there’s no reason for investors to be fearful of momentum stocks just because stock prices are near all-time highs. After nine years, a certain degree of caution is understandable, but Wald says price action has remained bullish. Wald and the Oppenheimer analyst team recently selected the best momentum stock to buy in each of nine different market sectors.
Seminars can provide valuable insight into the overall market and specific investment types. Most seminars will focus on one specific aspect of the market and how the speaker has found success utilizing their own strategies over the years. Examples include Dan Zanger and Mark Minervini. Not all seminars have be paid for either. Some seminars are provided free which can be a beneficial experience, just be conscious of the sales pitch that will almost always come at the end.
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Still, other momentum strategies involve cross-asset analysis. For example, some equity traders closely watch the Treasury yield curve and use it as a momentum signal for equity entries and exits. A 10-year Treasury yield above the two-year yield generally is a buy signal, whereas a two-year yield trading above the 10-year is a sell signal. Notably, the two-year versus 10-year Treasury yields tend to be a strong predictor of recessions, and also has implications for stock markets.