During its latest rebalance, the Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) halved its exposure to the tech sector from 36.6% to 17.2%, and more than doubled the weight in health care to 27.9%. Utilities and real estate went from nearly zero to 11.7% and 7.1% of the portfolios, respectively. That helps explain the fund’s moderate loss of 1.7% in May, even though the tech stocks within the S&P 500 slumped a much steeper 5.7%.
Still, other momentum strategies involve cross-asset analysis. For example, some equity traders closely watch the Treasury yield curve and use it as a momentum signal for equity entries and exits. A 10-year Treasury yield above the two-year yield generally is a buy signal, whereas a two-year yield trading above the 10-year is a sell signal. Notably, the two-year versus 10-year Treasury yields tend to be a strong predictor of recessions, and also has implications for stock markets.
Research is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute advice or guidance, nor is it an endorsement or recommendation for any particular security or trading strategy. Research is provided by independent companies not affiliated with Fidelity. Please determine which security, product, or service is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Be sure to review your decisions periodically to make sure they are still consistent with your goals.
All investments involve risk and the past performance of a security, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Keep in mind that while diversification may help spread risk it does not assure a profit, or protect against loss, in a down market. There is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities, or other financial products. Investors should consider their investment objectives and risks carefully before investing.
Stock investing is filled with intricate strategies and approaches, yet some of the most successful investors have done little more than stick with the basics. That generally means using funds for the bulk of your portfolio — Warren Buffett has famously said a low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best investment most Americans can make — and choosing individual stocks only if you believe in the company’s potential for long-term growth.
There are risks associated with investing in a public offering, including unproven management, and established companies that may have substantial debt. As such, they may not be appropriate for every investor. Customers should read the offering prospectus carefully, and make their own determination of whether an investment in the offering is consistent with their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance.
Forums can be another source for question and answer. Two recommendations include Elite Trader and Trade2Win. Just be careful of who you listen to. The vast majority of participants are not professional traders, let alone profitable traders. Heed advice from forums with a heavy dose of salt and do not, under any circumstance, follow trade recommendations.
Few professional investment managers make use of momentum investing, believing that individual stock picking based on an analysis of discounted cash flows and other fundamental factors tends to produce more predictable results, and is a better means of beating index performance over the long term. "As an investment strategy, it’s a thumb in the eye of the 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH), one of the central tenets of modern finance," to quote a UCLA Anderson Review article, "Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?" published on Oct. 31, 2018.