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Few professional investment managers make use of momentum investing, believing that individual stock picking based on an analysis of discounted cash flows and other fundamental factors tends to produce more predictable results, and is a better means of beating index performance over the long term. "As an investment strategy, it’s a thumb in the eye of the 'efficient market hypothesis' (EMH), one of the central tenets of modern finance," to quote a UCLA Anderson Review article, "Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?" published on Oct. 31, 2018.
Research is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute advice or guidance, nor is it an endorsement or recommendation for any particular security or trading strategy. Research is provided by independent companies not affiliated with Fidelity. Please determine which security, product, or service is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Be sure to review your decisions periodically to make sure they are still consistent with your goals.
Analysts usually upgrade their earnings estimates for high-momentum stocks more than low-momentum stocks, creating an overly bullish sentiment among investors that could often make the high-momentum stocks very crowded. That behavior has moderated over recent months, noted McCarthy, and the momentum strategy has become less crowded since the fourth quarter last year, though still above historical levels.
Trend Score is our proprietary combination of technical factors reduced to a signal number that allows us to quickly identify stocks on the move. Factors include Moving Averages, Wilder's DMI (ADX), Aroon and MACD. We combine the scores for each of these indicators into a composite score that ranges from 0 to 6 that shows how strongly a stock is trending in a bullish direction.